This marks a rise of 7 percentage points on their previous poll (February 2023), when 62% voters saw potential economic benefits from the Protocol. Then 29% disagreed – a figure which has fallen to 19% in light of the Windsor deal.

There is a difference between strong and soft unionists in views on the Windsor Framework. 48% of respondents who identify as a ‘strongly unionist’ do not see potential economic benefits from it, although 29% do. 7 in 10 of those who identify as ‘slightly unionist’ see potential benefits, as do around 9 out of 10 nationalists/others.

According to opinion polling conducted by LucidTalk on behalf of researchers at Queen’s University, two thirds of respondents (66%) believe that, with the Windsor Framework agreed, the Northern Ireland Executive should be re-established. This view is particularly prevalent among women (72%, compared to 60% of men) and younger people (three quarters of those aged under 45 agree).

One view that is shared across voters of all backgrounds (77%) in Northern Ireland is that the UK and EU commitments for increased UK government and EU engagement with Northern Ireland stakeholders and political representatives on implementation of the Windsor Framework/Protocol are welcome and important. This includes 56% of those identifying as ‘strongly unionist’ and 72% of ‘slightly unionist’ respondents.

The report was carried out by Professor David Phinnemore, Professor Katy Hayward, and Dr Lisa Claire Whitten and is the eighth in a series of opinion panel polls conducted for Queen’s researchers as part of a three-year project funded by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC), part of UK Research and Innovation (UKRI). 

The polling was conducted from 18 - 21 March 2023, three weeks after the UK government and the European Commission announced the deal. The results of the polling are from a weighted sample of 1,201 respondents.

Key findings include:

• The most significant movement towards being in favour of the Windsor Framework compared to the Protocol has come from among those who identify as ‘slightly unionist’ and ‘non-aligned/neutral’.
• There has been little change in the opinion of those identifying as nationalist or as strongly unionist.
• With the Windsor Framework, 61% of respondents want MLAs in 2024 to vote in favour of the continued application of the Protocol. This represents a 10-percentage point increase on the same question in the previous ‘Testing the Temperature’ poll (February 2023).
• A significant minority of voters in Northern Ireland remain opposed to the Windsor Framework.
• 23% will only vote for candidates in the next NI Assembly election who are favour of scrapping the Protocol and/or the Windsor Framework.
• 25% would have preferred the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill to the Windsor Framework; a majority of voters (51%) disagree.
• Voters are divided on the value of the Windsor Framework’s ‘Stormont Brake’. 43% of respondents agree that the ‘Stormont Brake’ provides an appropriate means for MLAs to influence changes to EU law applicable under the Protocol; just over a third (35%) disagree.  
• Voters are also divided on what the Windsor Framework means for Northern Ireland’s position in the United Kingdom.
• Just over a third (35%) think that the Windsor Framework poses a threat to Northern Ireland’s position in the UK; a majority (57%) disagree.
• 81% of those identifying as ‘strongly unionist’ believe Northern Ireland’s place in the UK is threatened by the Windsor Framework arrangements.
• There is significant gender difference with 27% of females believing that Northern Ireland’s place in the UK is threatened, compared to 42% males.

Speaking about these latest findings, Principal Investigator, Professor David Phinnemore from the School of History, Anthropology, Philosophy and Politics at Queen’s said: “With the Windsor Framework more voters in Northern Ireland have become accepting or supportive of the Protocol. A clear majority believe genuine efforts have been made to address concerns raised and see potential economic benefits. This is the case across much of the political spectrum, from ‘slight unionist’ to ‘strong nationalist’. With the Windsor Framework in place, more voters now want MLAs to vote in favour of the Protocol in 2024. Yet these are views not universally shared. Opposition to the Protocol remains, particularly among ‘strong unionists’ where there are few indications that the Windsor Framework has shifted opinions.”

Co-investigator, Professor Katy Hayward, from the School of Social Sciences, Education and Social Work at Queen’s commented: “The new UK-EU deal has provoked no discernible movement from those who previously wanted the Protocol scrapped altogether. The only exception is the welcome given from majorities across the political spectrum to the new UK-EU commitments for direct engagement with NI stakeholders. Perhaps therein lies the chance to move from shouting from the sidelines to working around the same table.”

For the full report and findings, please visit: https://www.qub.ac.uk/sites/post-brexit-governance-ni/ProjectPublications/OpinionPolling/ and follow on Twitter: @PostBrexitGovNI.

ENDS…

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Media enquiries to Zara McBrearty at Queen’s Communications Office on email: z.mcbrearty@qub.ac.uk