Three years of polling on the Protocol reveals the depth of the new division in Northern Ireland
The Windsor Framework has reduced the scale of opposition to Northern Ireland’s (NI) unique post-Brexit arrangements, but not its intensity.
Polling conducted at regular four-month intervals by LucidTalk for Queen’s since early 2021 shows a clear pattern of division on the Protocol and Windsor Framework.
Although, in line with the results of the 2016 referendum, the majority in NI have consistently been of the view that Brexit is not a good thing for the United Kingdom (UK), voters were initially more evenly split over the Protocol – the original UK-EU deal intended to mitigate the effects of Brexit on the region.
From late 2021, a pattern settled in NI public opinion that saw a very slight majority in support of the Protocol, with a substantial minority opposed. That opposition was predominantly coming from the unionist community.
The Windsor Framework was agreed by the UK and European Union (EU) to ease some of the impacts of the Protocol arrangements and make further concessions to NI’s unique position. The three Queen’s University/LucidTalk polls conducted in the eight months since the Framework was announced indicate that opposition has indeed reduced in scale (from c.40% to c.35%).
Hardline opposition has remained, however. Almost a quarter of respondents (23%) in the latest poll (conducted from 20 - 23 October 2023, and using a weighted sample of 1,104 respondents) say they will only vote for candidates in a NI Assembly election who are in favour of scrapping the Protocol altogether. The clear majority of those opposed to the Protocol/Windsor Framework self-identify as “strongly unionist”.
Respondents are evenly split on whether the Windsor Framework is positive (39%) or negative (39%) for Northern Ireland’s place in the UK internal market. Almost two thirds (65%) believe it provides a unique set of post-Brexit economic opportunities which could benefit Northern Ireland.
A majority (55%) think the Protocol/Windsor Framework is having negative impacts on political stability in Northern Ireland and more think it is negative for NI’s place in the UK (43%) than positive (29%). This is not necessarily due to the Protocol alone. 58% of respondents think Brexit makes a united Ireland more likely, including 30% of Leave voters.
The polling was conducted for a report produced by Professor David Phinnemore, Professor Katy Hayward, and Dr Lisa Claire Whitten. This is the ninth in a series of ‘Testing the Temperature’ reports on NI voters views on Brexit and the Protocol produced by Queen’s researchers as part of a three-year project funded by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC), part of UK Research and Innovation (UKRI).
Other key findings include:
- Over two thirds of voters (64%) in NI agree that the Assembly and Executive should be restored and fully functioning now that the Windsor Framework has been adopted.
- Fewer than one in ten voters (9%) in NI think that Brexit is delivering the benefits envisaged by the Leave campaign. This includes just 15% of Leave voters.
- 70% of Leave voters in NI believe that the promises of the 2016 Leave campaign have not been forthcoming, even though two thirds of them (67%) still believe that Brexit is a good thing for the UK and would not change how they voted in the 2016 referendum.
- 6 in 10 respondents (60%) agree that the Windsor Framework is the best available compromise for addressing the concerns of people in NI with the original Protocol; one third (33%) disagree.
- A majority (69%) agree that the UK should pursue closer relations with the EU to reduce further the need for formalities, checks and controls on the movement of goods; 17% disagree.
Speaking about the latest findings, Principal Investigator, Professor David Phinnemore said: “Views on the Protocol/Windsor Framework have become entrenched. While a majority generally view the Protocol/Windsor Framework favourably, the numbers have barely changed since early summer. Most voters are broadly accepting or supportive of the Protocol/Windsor Framework arrangements; and the clear majority believe the Assembly and Executive should now be back up and running. However, opposition the Protocol/Windsor Framework arrangements persists, particularly among voters identifying as ‘strongly unionist’. And that opposition appears for many to be very much a matter of principle with very limited evidence that the position is likely to change.”
Co-Investigator, Professor Katy Hayward commented: “Three years of polling shows us that views on the Protocol/Windsor Framework and Brexit are, by and large, positions of principle. This affects people’s perceptions as to its impact too. So we see a clear pattern of division reflected in answer to questions about such things as to the impact of the Protocol on the availability of GB-produced meat products in NI supermarket or on the 1998 Agreement. Such divisions are, of course, the most difficult to resolve.”
For the full report and findings, please visit: https://www.qub.ac.uk/sites/post-brexit-governance-ni/ProjectPublications/OpinionPolling/ and follow on Twitter/X: @PostBrexitGovNI.
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