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Estimating cancer waiting time statistics with a time-to-event methodology

School of Medicine, Dentistry and Biomedical Sciences | PHD
Funding
Unfunded
Reference Number
SMED-2211-11873
Application Deadline
None specified
Start Date
None specified

Overview

The NHS Cancer Waiting Times 62-day target has a number of shortcomings that can conceal the true impact of excessive delays on cancer patient care. This PhD project will define those shortcomings, and address them using a time-to-event statistical methodology

The Northern Ireland Cancer Waiting Time (CWT) 62-day target statistic is the worst in the UK at 40%. For a given quarterly period, it is the proportion of cancer patients who received a first definite treatment within 62 days of their urgent GP referral for suspected cancer out of the total number of patients who received first definitive treatment.

However, for patients on the waiting list, this CWT statistic has shortcomings in an era of excessive delays. Firstly, it does not quantify the impact of excess-delay on 1) the receipt the intended and optimal treatment, and 2) [avoidable] patient mortality. Secondly, the statistic does not properly summarise waiting time for a defined calendar period, and, consequently, how waiting times are changing.

A time-to-event competing-risk methodology, whereby follow up time in a specific calendar period with multiple ‘events’ (e.g. intended or unintended curative treatment, end-of-life care, death) is analysed, can address these shortcomings. Improved CWT statistics across health trusts will show more transparently where, when, and in what manner, waiting times are impacting patient care. With this improved intelligence, limited resource can be directed more effectively. The methodology will be developed using data from Health and Social Care in Northern Ireland.

Project Summary
Supervisor

Dr Finian Bannon

More Information

askmhls@qub.ac.uk

Research Profile


Mode of Study

Full-time: 3 years


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