A sizeable minority, however, remains hostile to the arrangements and only a small proportion of respondents having ‘no opinion’ on the topic.

A majority (61%) currently see the Protocol, with Windsor Framework, as an appropriate means for managing the effects of Brexit on Northern Ireland and 56% as overall ‘a good thing for Northern Ireland’; 34% of respondents are of the opposite view.

Almost three quarters of respondents (73%) believe that particular arrangements for Northern Ireland are necessary to manage the impact of Brexit.

62% do not think that Brexit is overall ‘a good thing’ for the United Kingdom. The same proportion of respondents believe the United Kingdom was wrong to leave the European Union.

Most voters want Northern Ireland to be more involved in decisions regarding the implementation of the Protocol with almost three quarters (71%) of respondents agreeing that the UK and the EU should increase engagement with stakeholders in Northern Ireland on the implementation of the Protocol/Windsor Framework. This now includes majorities from supporters of all Northern Ireland political parties.

The report also provides a picture of the levels of trust in political parties and institutions with the UK government by far the most distrusted (80% distrust including 44% strongly distrust) and least trusted (4% trust) of all actors.

Respondents remain divided on how their MLAs should vote in the 2024 ‘democratic consent’ vote on continuing with the Protocol/Windsor Framework, but with a larger proportion (58%) supporting a vote in favour; 36% want MLAs to vote against.

Almost two thirds of respondents (65%) agree that with the Windsor Framework, the Assembly and Executive should be restored and fully-functioning. Almost a third (30%) disagree.

The report was produced by Professor David Phinnemore, Professor Katy Hayward, and Dr Lisa Claire Whitten from Queen’s University and is the eighth in a series of regular opinion panel polls conducted for Queen’s researchers as part of a three-year project funded by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC), part of UK Research and Innovation (UKRI).

The polls are conducted every four months during 2021-2023 by LucidTalk using its online Northern Ireland Opinion Poll. The results presented here are from a sample of 1169 responses to the survey undertaken on 9-12 June 2023. The survey was completed by 2559 respondents.

Speaking about the findings, Principal Investigator, Professor David Phinnemore from the School of History, Anthropology, Philosophy and Politics at Queen’s said: “Opinion in Northern Ireland remains divided on the Protocol, but the Windsor Framework does appear to have addressed for some voters the concerns that they have had and so we see increased support for the Protocol now compared to the start of the year. Whether that support will increase or even be sustained will depend on the implementation of the Windsor Framework being seen to benefit Northern Ireland’.

Co-investigator, Professor Katy Hayward, from the School of Social Sciences, Education and Social Work at Queen’s added: “One of the biggest shifts we have seen in opinion since the Windsor Framework was agreed has been an increase in positivity around UK-EU relations and British-Irish relations. That in itself is a better foundation for political stability in post-Brexit Northern Ireland but there is still a long way to go. The fact that a clear majority want to see closer UK-EU relations and UK-EU consultation directly with stakeholders in Northern Ireland gives some indication of what might at least help."

For the full report and findings, please click here and follow on Twitter @PostBrexitGovNI.

 

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