At Queen's University Belfast, researchers are transforming our understanding of Earth’s past climate through innovative methods to date and analyse sedimentary records. Central to this effort is groundbreaking research in geochronology, including the development of Bayesian age-depth modelling techniques.
These tools offer unprecedented precision in reconstructing robust sediment core timelines, providing critical insights into climate patterns, biodiversity, and environmental changes over decades to thousands of years. This work supports global efforts to address challenges such as climate change and ecosystem preservation.
Research Challenge
Unlocking the Secrets of Earth’s Past
Understanding Earth’s climatic and environmental history is vital for predicting future trends. Sedimentary records—layers of materials deposited over millennia in lakes, peat bogs, and oceans—serve as natural archives of past conditions. However, accurately dating these layers has long been a significant scientific hurdle. Traditional age-depth modelling techniques often lacked precision and reliability and couldn’t deal with outliers, introducing poorly quantified uncertainties that complicated interpretations of historical climate events.
Researchers faced key challenges:
- Dating accuracy: Establishing precise timelines for sediment layers.
- Data integration: Merging radiocarbon dating with other chronological markers.
- Uncertainty quantification: Accounting for and reducing errors in age estimations.
Research teams at Queen’s have addressed these challenges by pioneering advanced, integrative computational methods tailored to the complexities of sedimentary records.
Our Approach
Bayesian Modelling for Accurate Chronologies
Queen’s researchers have been at the forefront of developing Bayesian statistical approaches to age-depth modelling, most notably through the creation of open-source R software packages such as “Bacon”, “Plum” and “coffee”. These tools use probabilistic techniques to integrate diverse dating methods, such as radiocarbon dating and tephrochronology, creating more accurate and reliable timelines for sediment cores.
Key innovations include:
- Adaptive Bayesian algorithms: These allow for flexible modelling that accounts for variable sedimentation rates.
- User-friendly software: Tools developed at Queen’s are freely and openly accessible, enabling researchers globally to apply cutting-edge methods without needing extensive statistical expertise.
- Enhanced uncertainty modelling: These techniques explicitly quantify uncertainties, providing more robust interpretations of past climate data.
These innovations have been applied to sediment cores from around the world, revealing insights into critical events such as abrupt climate shifts, volcanic eruptions, and anthropogenic impacts on ecosystems. Collaborative efforts have also advanced the understanding of “carbon reservoirs,” highlighting their role in global carbon cycles.
“Understanding the past is essential for navigating our future. By improving how we date sedimentary records, we’re not just refining timelines—we’re uncovering the stories of our planet, stories that can guide our responses to today’s environmental challenges.”
- Professor Maarten Blaauw
What impact did it make?
Transforming Climate Science and Beyond
The impact of this research extends far beyond academia. By providing precise chronologies, these methods have empowered researchers across multiple fields to unlock new discoveries.
Global Collaboration: Tools developed at Queen’s are used by scientists worldwide in disciplines ranging from geology and archaeology to environmental science. This broad applicability has fostered international collaborations and led to significant publications in high-impact journals.
Informing Climate Models: Insights derived from improved sediment dating contribute to more accurate proxy records to inform climate models, helping policymakers and scientists predict future climate scenarios with greater confidence.
Preserving Biodiversity: Research aids conservation efforts by providing historical baselines for ecosystems, guiding strategies to protect endangered habitats and species.
Educational Outreach: Through workshops and training sessions, Queen’s researchers have equipped the next generation of scientists with the skills to apply Bayesian modelling, ensuring the lasting legacy of these innovations.
Our impact
Impact related to the UN Sustainable Development Goals
Learn more about Queen’s University’s commitment to nurturing a culture of sustainability and achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) through research and education.
