The MSRC regularly hosts Colloquium talks and research conferences. In this academic year, they typically take place on Monday between 4-5 pm in MAPTC/0G/018.

Upcoming:

Date: 24 February 2025

Speaker: Olivia Adair (MSRC, QUB)
Title: "Microsimulation Modelling for Evaluating Population-Specific Colorectal Cancer Screening in Northern Ireland "
Abstract: "Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the fourth most diagnosed cancer and the third leading cause of cancer-related deaths in Northern Ireland (NI) [1]. Since 2010, the NI Bowel Cancer Screening Programme (NI BCSP) has biennially screened individuals aged 60-74 using a Faecal Immunochemical Test (FIT). Although the programme aligns with UK recommendations, it is not tailored to the NI population. A novel individual-level microsimulation model was developed to identify optimal screening strategies for the NI population.

A systematic review of CRC screening models informed the design and assumptions of this model. It adopts a time-to-event modelling approach, sharing elements with Discrete Event Simulations (DES), such as modelling individual trajectories and capturing time-to-event outcomes, while excluding queuing components [2]. The model incorporates an Approximate Bayesian Computation Markov Chain Monte Carlo (ABC-MCMC) algorithm [3] to calibrate unknown parameters, addressing challenges posed by limited data availability and ensuring the model reflects Northern Ireland's unique epidemiological characteristics.

The simulation was run on Kelvin2, a high-performance computing system, to meet the model and Bayesian calibration's computational demands. Data sources from the NI BCSP [4], NI Cancer Registry (NICR) [1], NI Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) [5], and the Office for National Statistics (ONS) [6] informed the model's development. Validation for 2010–2023 confirmed the model's ability to reproduce CRC diagnoses observed in the NI population. Using calibrated parameters, the model projected outcomes for 2024 onwards, comparing the current NI BCSP with alternative screening strategies. Sensitivity analyses explored variations in adherence, costs, and test performance.

Preliminary results suggest the current NI BCSP is less cost-effective than alternative strategies, particularly those lowering the starting age of screening. This study is the first to evaluate the NI BCSP using an individual-level simulation model with Bayesian calibration techniques. It highlights the strengths of time-to-event simulation models for capturing complex, population-specific screening dynamics and underscores the utility of Kelvin2 for high-performance public health modelling. This research demonstrates how simulation modelling and Bayesian approaches can inform public health decision-making and advance economic evaluations of cancer screening programmes.

References:
[1] Northern Ireland Cancer Registry. “Colorectal cancer.” (2022), [Online]. Available: https://www.qub.ac.uk/research-centres/nicr/CancerInformation/official-statistics/BySite/Colorectalcancer/ (visited on 25/07/2023).
[2] J. J. Caro, J. Moller, J. Karnon, J. Stahl, and J. Ishak, Discrete event simulation for health technology assessment. CRC press, 2015."