Orla Lundy (She/Her)

Current Research Project:

Mathematical models for operational decision-support in the Northern Ireland Ambulance Service

The Northern Ireland Ambulance Service is currently under extreme pressure due to a high demand for the service coupled with limited resources and capacity to respond to incidents in a timely manor. This pressure has increased in recent years.. Many issues have arisen, with some patients facing wait times of more than 24 hours and in some cases, patients have lost their lives while waiting long periods of time for an ambulance. Mathematical and statistical tools can be used to aid the service in managing the demand and identify the resources and their quantity that are needed to meet the demand.

Spatio-temporal modelling involves collecting data across both space and time. In this research, I will use spatio-temporal modelling to identify hotspot regions across NI and a short-term forecast model will be generated, simulating spatially and temporally future emergences across the country that are likely to occur. From this, a model of NIAS operations will be simulated and this will aid the assessment of many strategies to manage and reduce the pressure that the NIAS are currently facing. 

Biography:

I graduated from QUB in July 2023 with a First Class Honours MMath in Mathematics and Statistics & Operational Research. Through completing my dissertation titled "Analysing the impact of longitudinal biomarkers on a patient's length of stay in the ICU", I developed a passion for data analytics in healthcare. During the 2023/2024 academic year, I completed a PGCE in Primary Education at the University of Manchester, before returning to Belfast to begin my PhD in 2024. 

Research Interests:

• Spatial analysis
• Simulation modelling
• Survival Analysis
• Longitudinal Analysis
• Joint Modelling

Supervisors:

Dr Laura Boyle and Dr Hannah Mitchell