Eleonora Guarnieri

University of Exeter

"Cultural Distance and Ethnic Civil Conflict"

Abstract:

Ethnically diverse countries are more prone to conflict, yet we lack an understanding of why some groups engage in conflict and others do not. In this paper, I argue that civil conflict is explained by ethnic groups’ cultural distance to the central government: an increase in cultural distance increases an ethnicity’s propensity to fight over government power. To identify this effect, I leverage within-ethnicity variation in cultural distance to the government resulting from power transitions between ethnic groups over time. I validate my findings in a triple difference-in-differences design and through a novel instrumental variables approach. As an instrument for cultural distance, I use differences in ethnic homelands’ exposure to the route of the Bantu expansion, a prehistoric migration that shaped culture in sub-Saharan Africa. When exploring mechanisms, I provide evidence that the effects of cultural distance on conflict can be explained by differences in preferences over public goods. First, cultural distance triggers only conflict over
government power, but not conflict over territory or resources. Second, using individual-level survey data, I find that respondents dislike the mix of public policies provided by a culturally distant government. By shedding light on which ethnic groups are more likely to rebel at a given point in time, these findings can inform strategies to target conflict prevention efforts.